Wednesday 1 April 2009

Will Euro Fall Sharply

Here is a quote from Shane Oliver that supports my opinion that Euro is to fall sharply against the Australian Dollar, and soon:

An obvious concern is that by increasing the supply of US dollars, the value of the US dollar (US$) will fall. While it has fallen sharply in the last week, it is hard to see the US$ falling too far. Other countries are also undertaking quantitative easing and it is only a matter of time before the European Central Bank is forced to do the same.

Now, from technical analysis we know that a narrowing pendant is a sign of change. The EURAUD chart below presents the focus of a narrowing pendant.

1y

This might be an indicator that Euro is to head South in the next couple of weeks. Well, if it happens as Mr. Oliver states, that could be the trigger for such an event. Another reason would be the increased risk tolerance in the markets, indicated in the last 2-week market rally worldwide.

Update: The first confirmation did not take long. See update 1.

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