Markets Past the Worst

uncertainty measured by implied volatility on the S&P 100 – commonly known at the financial “fear factor” – has fallen back by 50 per cent, and the stock market has begun to rise. I believe growth will resume by late 2009, and the halfway point of the credit crunch may have passed.

The above seems to be the general consensus about the current situation in the markets. Even Nouriel Roubini agrees with this view, albeit with a bit different time frames. I believe the above might be true in case we see some positive surprises, whereas Roubini sees only negative surprises in the future, hence the progress is to be slower than generally thought. Well, both options are possible. That’s why they are called ‘surprises’ in the first place. However, March 6-9, 2009 seems to have been the (double) bottom of the current financial crisis.