Wednesday 24 December 2008

Predictions

The Brit Ministry of Defense looks at world’s future - it’s grim. « Fabius Maximus
For example, a decline of confidence in globalized markets is possible and might cause international rivalries to intensify, increasing the risk of inter-state warfare. Therefore, while planning on the basis that major strategic powers have a shared interest in maintaining global economic stability remains reasonable, the need to understand the potential for conflict between them will persist.
Why do predictions about future always include war? That is, probably, our greatest fear. Death, chaos, uncertainty, loss, change, unpredictability... War brings the ultimate challenge. Some accept it, some don't. But they all risk and take chances when involved. And, in the end, some profit other loose.
The above example, listed in the forecasts published between 2006 and 2007, is very close to truth today. And highlights one thing I want to emphasize - how market risks work with other risks and vice versa.

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