Sunday 14 December 2008

Oil and the Changing Political Climate

Falling price of oil will have an effect on the world political climate. Perhaps more than economical. Looking at the numbers below, that show what the price of oil should be if these countries want to balance their budgets, can lead to some staggering conclusions.

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Russia is missing from the list. Their value for '09 is $70. It means that the price of oil should be at $70 per barrel, with the same production output, to balance their national balance sheet.

Since OPEC countries are not effectively reducing production, for they need any cash they can get, the oil price might go even lower - towards $30 per barrel. If that scenario goes on, the political unrest in the above, already fragile, countries, will develop in some interesting ways.

After all this (the financial and economic crisis) is done, there will be conspiracy theories stating that the Western countries' only way to bring the rising powers of Russian, China, India, Brasil, etc. was to cause an economic collapse. Which happens to make more damage do those fast-developing countries than to the already developed ones.

Oh, and yes, the auto industry is changing rapidly. It is about time, considering it is the end of the year 2008 and the era of the car as we know it is, obviously, over.

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