Tuesday 7 October 2008

Brrrrr

In some opinions in the news, people are starting to use the term bottom. The other day I read that there is lot of deleveraging to be done before we could call a bottom. Then, last night, as the market was diving in a free-fall margin calls for those leveraged positions were in the making. Apparently, this morning there were lots of margin calls for people to cover those positions. Many sold the shares "at the bottom" and then watched the prices shoot up. This sentence appeared in an opinion and has struck a cord. Could it be it?

As I'm watching, the ASX 200 index is passing 4670. This looks too much for a dead cat bounce. It will be interesting to see what will happen later in the day when other markets open.

Of course it's early to say. The confirmation should come by Friday or the next Monday, after the G7 meeting. But by then it would be too obvious and too late. :)

Still, there is about 15 months of recovery in front of us if we take the average time it has taken for markets to recover, whenever the bottom gets hit.

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