Monday, 3 November 2008

It's a Trader's Market - Forecast for the Rest of 2008 and Beyond

Forget Buy-and-Hold; It's a Trader's Market - Seeking Alpha
On average traders can expect market gains for the remainder of 2008; doesn't that sound nice? Specifically, we can expect a 10-15 percent gain between now and year's end, based on the quarterly analysis. Additionally, based on the top ten monthly losses we can expect marginal losses in November and solid gains in December and January (3 months later). By aggregating the information, the case for the bulls is even more powerful, but the bearish case is NOT closed. It is almost certain that volatility will continue to be front and center, which will foster an environment fit for traders.
I don't know if it's me picking the bullish signs or is it that more and more analysts are throwing these out into public. Apparently, from now until the end of the year there is 10-15% gain to be made. Adding to the gain made last week, that should be the bulk of recovery from the bottom last month. After that it's a phase 1 - sideways movement for some time until another bull starts.
That's what the books say. Now, to invest or not, the choice is yours.

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