Monday 10 November 2008

Bullishness on the Rise

Sentiment Overview: Bullishness Is on the Rise, Insiders Are Buying - Seeking Alpha
It seems that investors are getting nervous and getting back into the market. The OIS (similar to VIX indicator but less prone to manipulation) is at 0.5%. This is the interbank lending rate, which is now well into normal territory.
The sentiment, in general, is improving. The crisis has well affected the real world. The companies reduce their earning estimates, the unemployment is on the rise. Hopefully, drop in stock prices is higher than the drop in earnings will be. This should be good for the buyers of dividend stocks.
The estimates in Australia are that the Australian Dollar should bounce back sometimes in mid-2009. That would mean that the commodities demand would increase in the next several months, driving the prices up and along them the Dollar.
Some estimate we are now within 20% of the possible bottom. Well, in ASX terms this could well translate into 3600, reached two weeks ago.
Today the index is moving upwards. This week there is the G20 meeting in Washington and the new US president is to name the top economic roles in the new government.

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