Thursday 21 May 2009

Business Spectator - This rally is all bull - Alan Kohler

More and more economic analysts call the bottom retrospectively, to have happened early March. Eureka Report’s panel of economists states, with 9 analysts out of 10, that market has bottomed out in the first week of March. Most now agree that we have seen the worst. Excluding further disasters, the market indices should not go lower than levels reached two and a half months ago. It is still possible, and quite likely, that market will move lower than the current levels.

This would be a typical phase 1 in the economic cycle. See the phases shown graphically - here. I believe everyone is now expecting to see a higher low, confirming that the decline has definitely ended. And not only that. The higher low would mean that growth is back in the game.

Business Spectator - This rally is all bull - Alan Kohler

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