Anglo-American Crisis and European Recovery

Another great analysis and comparison between the economic realities of UK/USA vs Europe (Germany/France). Differences in economic base caused this crisis to affect mostly US and UK. European economies were not that affected and are likely to recover sooner.
A valuable read.

RGE - We Shouldn’t be Surprised by Signs of an Early European Recovery

The Roots of the Next Downturn

Robert Reich, from RGE, is analyzing the discrepancy between the stock market charts and the situation in the economy in real life. Consumer spending in USA is down to 60-65% but the government is covering for the rest, hence the jump in the economic activity and the markets. When (or if) this dries up there will be nothing holding the market indices, which may reach new lows. This is what some are predicting - a correction. But with an unknown scope.

RGE - Why the Dow is Hitting 10,000 even when Consumers Can't Buy and Business Cries "Socialism"

Salaries Survey - Bosnia, Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia

An interesting conclusions from a survey in Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Food prices are the highest in a country that has the most agricultural industry in the surveyed group! Balkan paradox, as usual.
On the positive side, the average salaries edge higher, showing an improvement in standard of living.

Serbia Has Lowest Surveyed Salaries :: BalkanInsight.com

According to Eurostat, some food prices in Serbia are amongst the highest in the region, and are even higher than average prices in the EU.

Nonetheless, Eurostat, which monitors 36 countries, reported last month that only prices in Bulgaria, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina are lower than in Serbia.

Recession is over

Officials in the US called it the end of recession. Most common people still believe we are in recession. Probably because we are all humans and we still feel the bruising from the last year's crash. The unemployment is still on the rise. So, yes, it still might feel like a recession bit it is over, finally.
The recovery, however, is expected next year...

GENEVA - Global
investors are expected to scale back their activities almost 30 per
cent overall in 2009, but a recovery should begin "slowly" next year,
the UN's trade development mission says.

ASX at 4600

ASX All Ordinaries index has reached 4600. A few months back this seemed incredibly high and out of reach.

Investing in Gold in Australia

One of the easiest ways to invest in gold in Australia must be purchasing GOLD shares on ASX. This is a trust (or an ETF, if you want) that provides exposure to the price of Gold in the world commodity markets.
As listed on ASX:

Gold Bullion Securities (GOLD)

The development of Gold Bullion Securities (ASX code GOLD) has been a joint initiative between Gold Bullion Limited and the World Gold Council. A GOLD security consists of a gold bullion share of nominal value and a beneficial interest in approximately 1/10th of one fine troy ounce of gold bullion held on trust for the holder of the security.

The gold is held in London vaults by a custodian. A trust deed establishes a separate trust for each holder of GOLD so that the holder is absolutely entitled to the gold bullion held in the vaults. Each time a holder transfers GOLD to a new holder, the beneficial interest in the gold bullion automatically transfers to the new holder.

Investors can buy GOLD securities on ASX or, if they have a minimum of $500,000 to invest, they can apply for new GOLD securities from Gold Bullion Limited. Likewise holders of GOLD securities can sell them on market, or (subject to certain conditions and fees applying) they may redeem them at any time for cash or in exchange for London Good Delivery bars.

Investors wishing to invest in the securities should familiarise themselves with full details of the investment contained in the prospectus issued by Gold Bullion Limited, including fees and conditions applying and the risk factors involved.

Prospective investors should also seek independent professional advice before making a decision to invest.

Gold Bullion Securities listed on ASX - Prospectus information

The only way is up?

Market analysis from Shane Oliver, "Sharemarket earnings & valuations post reporting season, 1/09/2009". The conclusion is that we are now in an upward moving market and there is much more left to go.

Strange how, all of a sudden, all the graphs and analysis show how the correction was not as bad and that there is a strong growth potential.

Expert Articles

Recovery Sooner than Expected?

Well, nothing new, obviously. I'd even say this was expected - that the recovery is to come sooner than expected. Good news, anyway.

ROME - A
recovery of the world economy might occur three months earlier than had
been expected, at the beginning of next year, the head of the IMF said
on Tuesday.

Bosnian Residential Real Estate Summary

Residential properties prices in Bosnia have fallen about 20% from Summer 2008 to January 2009. Further decline in prices was expected. It would be interesting to find a more recent summary and see whether the expectations were met.
The main reason for price drop is financing difficulties. The loan conditions have been stepped up by the banks and the interest rates raised.

Nekretnine365.com - Magazin o nekretninama - Cijene stanova u BiH vrtoglavo padaju!

More good news on global economic outlook

From RGE:

Global Economic Outlook: Is a Recovery in Sight?

• According to the September 2009 report, the OECD now expects that
  the global economic recovery will start earlier than previously
  anticipated but growth will remain weak through 2010. The G7 is
  expected to contract 3.7% in 2009 (better than the 4.1% contraction
  expected in June 2009), based on an improved outlook in Japan and the
  Euro area, a similar outlook for the U.S. and worse for the UK while
  Canada will continue to experience negative growth until Q4 2009.
  Emerging markets that had little exposure to the financial meltdown
  like China have significant economic momentum.

Australia on the way out of recession?

RGE reports...

Is Australia Approaching Escape Velocity Out of Recession?

• Australia extended its rebound with a 0.6% q/q, 0.6% y/y GDP growth
  (seasonally adjusted) in Q2 2009, after missing a technical recession
  by a hair (0.4% q/q, 0.4% y/y) in Q1 2009. This time, however, net exports declined and the country is still effectively in a recession, with unemployment rising, corporate profits
  sliding (-7.8% q/q in Q2), GDP growth well below potential for the
  fifth consecutive quarter, and income GDP down 1.5% q/q. Going forward,
  the economic recovery will most likely remain muted by private sector deleveraging.

Global Manufacturing Expanding

RGE writes...

Global Manufacturing Now Expanding

• Manufacturing surveys suggest that global manufacturing activity
  began expanding in August 2009 after climbing for many months due to
  stimulus and inventory adjustment. Purchasing Managers Indexes from
  some advanced economies like Japan rose above the 50 threshold in July indicating expansion, joining some emerging markets like China, India and Turkey which had risen above those levels earlier. The U.S., France and Brazil finally moved into expansion territory in August while the UK slipped back into overall contraction and countries in emerging Europe and Russia remain below the 50 threshold.

What are Bonds?

A brief and to-the-point article on Vanguard about bonds - what they are and how they work. Excellent article.

Market Update | Finance News & Commentary | Vanguard Investments Australia

ASX All Ordinaries past 4500

The Australian All Ordinaries index has passed the 4500 mark.



Australia - Stock Market Charts