Saturday, 29 November 2008
Friday, 28 November 2008
ASX S&P 200 closing onto 3700
It is a few minutes left until market close. The close of the day, the close of the week, and the close of the month.
November started with a presidential rally and is closing with a rally.
ASX 200 is hitting 3700 from below at the moment.
November started with a presidential rally and is closing with a rally.
ASX 200 is hitting 3700 from below at the moment.
Has recovery started?
Well, whether the recovery started or not, BHP is up by 50% in 5 days! From 2000 to 3000 since November 21. This is quite amazing.
So, either a new suckers' rally or the beginning of phase 1? I'm an optimist so I'll go with option #2. Hope this is the phase 1 entering.
So, either a new suckers' rally or the beginning of phase 1? I'm an optimist so I'll go with option #2. Hope this is the phase 1 entering.
Thursday, 27 November 2008
Serbia may emerge stronger out of the crisis
BalkanInsight.com - Crisis Will Toughen Serbia, World Bank Says
According to WorldBank's country manager, Serbia may emerge stronger once the economic crisis ends.
These are good signs for the region's future.
According to WorldBank's country manager, Serbia may emerge stronger once the economic crisis ends.
These are good signs for the region's future.
Volcker back in the game
Obama chooses Volcker as economic adviser - MarketWatch
Paul Volcker has been named the head of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. The board is to provide independent economic advice to the new President. Many had hoped that Volcker would come back to the scene in time of crisis as he was the Fed chairman from 1979 to 1987.
This news propped the markets further upwards. The ASX is to open higher. Australian S&P 200 reached almost 3700 overnight. It is to open at 3540, where it closed yesterday. All Ordinaries are about 50 points lower.
Paul Volcker has been named the head of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. The board is to provide independent economic advice to the new President. Many had hoped that Volcker would come back to the scene in time of crisis as he was the Fed chairman from 1979 to 1987.
This news propped the markets further upwards. The ASX is to open higher. Australian S&P 200 reached almost 3700 overnight. It is to open at 3540, where it closed yesterday. All Ordinaries are about 50 points lower.
Wednesday, 26 November 2008
A different view to a solution to the current crisis in the US
The More Things Change ... - Seeking Alpha
This interesting article lists possible steps needed to start fixing the mess in the US financial system. What strikes me is that, if implemented, the US financial system would pretty much resemble the European one.
This interesting article lists possible steps needed to start fixing the mess in the US financial system. What strikes me is that, if implemented, the US financial system would pretty much resemble the European one.
Tuesday, 25 November 2008
Australia to be hit only next year
Business Spectator - Local dollar to hit 47 US cents, says bank
BNP Paribas sees Australia at zero growth in 2009, with Australian Dollar hitting 47 US cents. Those would be followed by 2.75 percent cash rate.
BNP Paribas sees Australia at zero growth in 2009, with Australian Dollar hitting 47 US cents. Those would be followed by 2.75 percent cash rate.
First Glimpses of Recovery
Business Spectator - Buyers are watching and waiting
OK, so this is what it's like when the good news start appearing. After the first positive signs coming from China, this comment from Gottliebsen adds an icing on the cake.
There might be the first signs of a sustainable recovery.
Another fact is that, the lower the market indexes are the stronger the buying pressure gets.
The ASX S&P200, led by gains in Wall Street, hovers around 3600 after bouncing off 3200 level, reached last week.
OK, so this is what it's like when the good news start appearing. After the first positive signs coming from China, this comment from Gottliebsen adds an icing on the cake.
There might be the first signs of a sustainable recovery.
Another fact is that, the lower the market indexes are the stronger the buying pressure gets.
The ASX S&P200, led by gains in Wall Street, hovers around 3600 after bouncing off 3200 level, reached last week.
China Recovering
Business Spectator - BlackRock says China starting to recover
The effects of the Chinese Government stimulus released earlier are beginning to appear. If sustainable, this would be extremely good news for the Australian economy.
The effects of the Chinese Government stimulus released earlier are beginning to appear. If sustainable, this would be extremely good news for the Australian economy.
Market as a Discounting Mechanism
As a Discounting Mechanism, the Market Will Rebound Before the Economy - Seeking Alpha
Markets are efficient in a sense that all the known news and forecasts are already calculated in the market price.
It has already been said that markets are moved by sentiment and tremendously affected by expectations. Noone can say with absolute certainty if or when there is going to be a ground-breaking event in the future, like new war or a sudden increase in demand of any commodity, service, or currency. But all the known facts (and distortions) are calculated into the current market price.
So, markets may not further when there is only doom and gloom in the news. All the foreseen doom and gloom is already there - in the market price. So, as things go for worse or are expected to go for worse, the market price will fall. Likewise, as things improve or are expected to improve, the market price will rise.
The above article also mentions that Nouriel Roubini also thinks the recession would end before the end of 2009.
My thoughts is that the market has to stabilize for some time (Stage 1 as shown here), before it can start another growth stage (Stage 2).
Markets are efficient in a sense that all the known news and forecasts are already calculated in the market price.
It has already been said that markets are moved by sentiment and tremendously affected by expectations. Noone can say with absolute certainty if or when there is going to be a ground-breaking event in the future, like new war or a sudden increase in demand of any commodity, service, or currency. But all the known facts (and distortions) are calculated into the current market price.
So, markets may not further when there is only doom and gloom in the news. All the foreseen doom and gloom is already there - in the market price. So, as things go for worse or are expected to go for worse, the market price will fall. Likewise, as things improve or are expected to improve, the market price will rise.
The above article also mentions that Nouriel Roubini also thinks the recession would end before the end of 2009.
My thoughts is that the market has to stabilize for some time (Stage 1 as shown here), before it can start another growth stage (Stage 2).
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