Sunday, 27 July 2008

Economic News and Forecast

The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
Here's an interesting site with current economic analysis for the world markets and global economic outlook. I just read some opinions from earlier in the year and now I'm looking for some more recent ones. After all, the market came back in April and May but then continued free fall for several weeks in May, June, and July. With so many conflicting forecast in the previous weeks and months I reckon no one can predict anything with certainty. So, let's at least see what is the state of current affairs.
There are some opinions that this year's presidential elections in the US will change the economic (and obviously the political) climate globally. And for the better.

Market Outlook in February 2008

Here's a piece of (now) old information. The forecast for markets in February was that the 2008 would be a highly volatile year. The US economy would contract for months before resuming growth at the end of the year. Asian economies were expected to remain resilient, benefiting from demand in China and India. Looking at the markets in Australia, Europe, and US - they all go up and down about the same time.
Now I'm interested to find some current forecasts. So far we've seen the credit crunch and the burst of American housing bubble. But, obviously, that was not all of it. These are definitely interesting times.

P/E for Australian Shares

Just reading "Bearish bargains" article (dated 1st August 2008, which is five days away, making me feel as if I'm already in the future :) and confirming the belief that now is actually a good time to buy. Never mind the bad news around and gloomy forecast. That is the driving force of the markets.
I was never a fan of chasing the high growth numbers. Always preferred a lower but steadier income.
Current market data shows that different industries are down from 20% to 40% this year. The result is that price-earnings ratio (P/E) for Australian shares is at the lowest point in the past 12 years at 11.3 times. In comparison, the average ratio over the past 10 years is 15.2. This means that for $1 of earnings you would pay $11.3 now, while the average is $15.2.
In addition, the market is pretty low and the question is how low it can go. At times like this it is a good thing to jump from technical analysis to value analysis. While technical analysis mostly analyzes the price movement, value analysis involves underlying earnings. Which is another aspect of investing - income.
Compared to current, in some opinions high, returns from cash deposits at banks the income returns from shares are still doing better.
And, when the bull returns, it won't take long to reach the levels at which you purchased the shares. Actually, at times like this, picking individual shares is risky and I, as usual, prefer index funds.

High dividend stocks are defensive assets. The dividend prevents the stock price from falling too low. This is visible from the price fluctuation in two Vanguard index funds - Australian Shares vs. High-Yield Australian Shares. The High-Yield fund, which contains companies that pay high dividends, is down way less than the Australian Shares fund. The good thing about income fund is that it is also franked. This year the amount is 105%, meaning some of your other income could be offset this year in terms of tax payments.

Prolonged Fall

According to the news and general opinion out there, the market fall is to continue in the months ahead. Recent bull run was characterized as a Dead-Cat Bounce and the general graph should continue downwards.
The foreclosures are to spread into the prime mortgage area in the US and no one knows when or how it would end. As a result, investors are afraid to put their money into the market and the companies reduce their earnings forecasts drastically. It is a pretty bleach outlook. In terms of time frame, some mention that this situation should go on for about the next year or so. Looking back, the average market downturn lasted about 8 months and the average recovery took about 15 months. This current one is in the midst of it and still within the average. Not really comforting, though.

Saturday, 26 July 2008

Entrecard's Popularity

Entrecard's concept is gaining popularity. The membership has passed 15,000. It's an interesting community. Remembering the Freakonomics and the importance of incentives, I believe the idea in this community is very appealing because it provides incentive. It is a system similar to current economic systems in a way that it contains a currency, providers of services, and consumers of services. And yet, members can easily be one or the other and are often both.
This also leads me to conclusion that the online culture is leading us into a world where we will have our online currency, and we will be both providers of services and consumers of services. Not that we are not right now but it will be so much more fluid and easier and faster to change the field of work, to establish contacts, earn credits and spend them - find a product, a gift, travel arrangement, accommodation, etc.
In that way, I'm looking forward to see how things develop for Entrecard community and am enjoying being part of it at the moment.

Monday, 21 July 2008

My First Tag Cloud Ad

Ads - Definitions

Here is the demo of how the tag cloud ad looks like. It is really cool. The terms literally fly in and out of the box. I find it amazing to look at. Makes me wonder what kind of algorithm is behind it. Apparently, Ads-click offers content matching but I wonder if that is any good. Have a look for yourself.

Ads-Click


ADS-click. publisher

I have just received an email informing me that the web site was approved and that I am now a publisher in Ads-Click network. Sweet. I'm interested in their advertising tag cloud. They might take AdEngage's place on my sites. :) Let's see how this one goes. None of the others have proven useful apart from AdSense, initially. But that has gone down the drain because of my negligence.
I'm also looking at other advertising networks but many of them high expectations. That confirms my previous post - a good idea first, a great web site next. Only then it can be used for advertising purposes. And that, of course, is only a step towards financial security and, eventually, independence. Some say that web sites are a source of passive income. Well, that may be but only partially. Web sites require an ongoing effort if they are to survive. There are obviously some that get a life on their own once set up properly. And those are probably a real treasure. But, looking at some stories online, those are only a small percentage out there.

AdEngage

I've decided to remove ads from AdEngage. Their glossary is very informative. It clearly states that they do not do CPM ads but only click-through ones.
AdEngage offers CPW ads on all the sites listed in the Site Directory and CPC
through Targeted CPC (RON) ads.
Apart from that, the targeted customers are in North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Echelon world, as I like to say (sarcastically). Nonetheless, I'm not sure whether ruining the aestethics of the web site is worth a few cents a month, at most.

I'd say my experiment with advertising networks is nearing its end. I find it useless until one has a useful idea that turns into a web site that is actually used for a useful purpose. Then the traffic or returning users may flow and that, then, can be used to place advertisements and turn an income. For as long the site remains useful and active, of course.
Also, I tend to learn what issues are important in creating a successful web site. A good idea, experience and knowledge of what "goes" is the first thing. You might know a few people that need a certain service. There are lots of good ideas. The second thing is a technical knowledge of how to implement. I know a few people with good ideas but no knowledge to implement them. And, the third thing is the infrastructure. I believe that nowadays it is relatively easy to set up a web site.
Right on. Off to learn some Python, I guess... :)

Trading & Taxation in Australia

A few words about trading considerations for Australian tax residents. The following text is copied from June IGMarkets PDS. The latest PDS can be found here. The reading will be interesting for all of you doing trading, since it's tax time.

Introduction
The following is a summary of the Australian taxation implications of dealing in a Margin Trading Product known as Contracts for Diferences (CFDs), and is based on the taxation laws as at the date of this PDS, and in particular Public Ruling TR2005/15 issued by the ATO on 31 August 2005 under Part IVAAA of the Taxation Administration Act 1953.
It is important to note that the ultimate tax implications to you will depend on your personal circumstances and, as such, you should consult an independent taxation advisor. Further, this PDS represents our understanding of the current view of the taxation laws and our interpretation of Public Ruling TR2005/15. It is important to note that our views have not been endorsed by the ATO and that tax laws and their interpretation are always subject to change.
The following summary represents our view of the current taxation treatment of gains and losses arising from trading CFDs as an Australian Tax Resident as at the date of this PDS. Taxation treatment will depend on your circumstances, and we strongly recommend that you consult an independent taxation advisor before deciding to open an account to deal in CFDs.
7.2 Proft or loss on CFDs
Income Tax
An Australian resident taxpayer generally calculates their taxable income by including assessable income and after allowing for losses incurred in gaining or producing assessable income.
CFDs can be characterised as cash settled Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivative products, in that your dealings with us under the Customer Agreement do not provide for a party to make or accept delivery of the underlying instrument. The ATO takes the view that CFDs are in law categorised as contracts of gaming and wagering, however this alone is not determinative of the tax treatment of gains and losses.
Gains
The ATO has taken the view that gains from trading CFDs will be assessable income-
(i) where the CFD is entered into as an ordinary incident of carrying on a business;
(ii) where the proft was obtained in a business operation;
(iii) where the proft was obtained in a commercial transaction for the purpose of proft making; or
(iv) where the proft is made in carrying on or out a proft making scheme.
Further, the ATO has taken the view that even an isolated CFD transaction can be considered to produce assessable income for the taxpayer. It should be noted that the ATO’s interpretation of what would fall within these parameters is very broad and appears likely to include all CFD trading, whether frequent or not.
However the Ruling also contemplates that a gain from a CFD entered into for the purpose of recreation by gambling (and not for a proft-making purpose) will not be assessable as income (or capital gain). The Ruling acknowledges that a taxpayer who enters into a CFD only once, or very occasionally, who has no expertise in the price of the underlying by which the gain or loss of the CFD will be calculated, does not engage in any income producing activities of a character bearing some association or connection with the CFD or its underlying, and in particular who gambles in the ordinary recreational way and who has entered into the CFD in circumstances such that the CFD may be seen to be part of that recreation, may establish that the gain or loss is a product of recreational gambling (and not the result of a proft making endeavour).
Losses
The Ruling also concludes that a loss from a CFD transaction where the gain would have been assessable is an allowable deduction.
Capital Gains Tax
While gains or losses would most often be on revenue account because it is
expected that the CFD is usually entered into for a proft-making purpose, where it can be said that there was never any such purpose, then in that event (unless it is for recreational gambling – see above), the gain or loss would be an assessable capital gain.
The ATO’s view is that a CFD contract falls within the defnition of a capital gains tax asset (a CGT asset) under section 108-5 ITAA 1997. However, pursuant to section 118-20 ITA 1997, to the extent a non-CGT provision includes an amount in the taxpayer’s assessable income as a result of a CGT event, a capital gain arising from a CGT event is reduced. This means that, to the extent that profts made from trading CFDs are included in your assessable income, you will not be required to include the amount of the transaction in the calculation of any capital gains tax liability.
The ATO has also expressed the view that losses incurred in trading CFDs can be regarded as capital losses for the purposes of capital gains tax to the extent that they are not otherwise excluded by law. Accordingly, such losses can be set of against any capital gains tax liabilities. However pursuant to subsection 110-55(4) of the ITAA 1997, to the extent that a loss of a CFD is deductible under section 8-1 or section 25-40, the reduced cost base of the asset is reduced thereby reducing the amount of the capital loss.
Paragraph 118-37(1)(c) of the ITAA 1997 provides that capital gains and capital losses arising from “gambling, a game or a competition from prizes” are to be disregarded.
The ATO’s position is that capital gains and capital losses from trading CFDs do not qualify for this or any other exemption in the ITAA 1997.
7.3 Notional interest and dividend adjustments
A share CFD is an agreement between two parties where one party pays to the other party an amount equal to the notional fnancial performance of a share between the time the CFD is opened and the time the CFD is closed. Any dividends paid in respect of the underlying share are notionally credited or debited as the case may be to each party in determining the notional fnancial performance of the share. At no time will you have an interest in the underlying share. An adjustment is also made representing the notional interest on funding of the underlying share position.
Any interest and dividend adjustments are notional amounts, which are unlikely to be characterised as dividends or interest for tax purposes. Instead, these notional adjustments will be taken into account in determining the overall proft or loss on the CFD. The taxation of the overall proft or loss on the CFD is set out at 6.2 above.
7.4 Commissions and other charges
As profts or losses are assessable or deductible by you, any commissions, interest or other fees that you pay to us will be deductible.
7.5 GST
According to the GST Determination GSTD2005/3 issued on 22 June 2005, the
provision, acquisition or disposal of a CFD is a fnancial supply under the provisions of the A New Tax System (Goods and Services) Tax 1999 (“GST Act”) and the GST Regulations and is input taxed, with no GST imposed. Further the supply of interests in CFDs does not constitute gambling supplies, as defned in section 126-35 of the GST Act. A CFD does not therefore in the view of the ATO represent a gambling event.
The commission paid to us at the time of entering the CFD would constitute
additional consideration for an input taxed fnancial supply. This would also apply to any premium for Limited Risk Protection on the basis that this charge is additional consideration for a variation to the ordinary CFD and, therefore, no GST is imposed.

Bull Run

Australia - Stock Market

Hm, no matter what they say in the news this seems like a bull run in the market. Oil fell about 17% which leaves some space for the economy to go forward. I believe the political tensions are relieved. The US is turning to negotiations with Iran and that sets some political stability in the oil region. Also, the lack of demand, resulting from the slowing economy worldwide, reduces demand on the oil reserves.
Today, all the Australian indices are up. Finally, no sector is down, as it was in the near past. Usually, either energy and material stocks went up and the others down or vice versa. Maybe this is an echo of the past few days in the market and now everyone's triggered to enter the bull market. :)
The other issue is psychological. I remember last Wednesday. The psychological pressure on that day was terrible. The market sunk for the past two months and there were only bad news. Almost seemed that could not be worse. Which is usually how it goes. Then, makes one wonder - if it can not be worse it means we're at the bottom. Right?